Transport Thematic Group (Hybrid) event
Cities account for more than 50 percent of the world’s population and 80 percent of its economic output. The concentration of people in cities is expected to continue through 2050, at which point an estimated 70 percent of the world’s population will reside in cities. Between 2020 and 2050, 2.3 billion people will be added to urban areas, and 90 percent of this increase will take place in Asia and Africa. This rapid urbanization is a pressing global issue, and a common pitfall is to focus only on the challenges faced by the world’s megacities, which neglect the many growing small and mid-sized cities. Notably, about 75% of the world’s urban population lives in settlements of less than 500,000 people–emerging cities. These cities, the most volatile and going through the most rapid change, are often characterized by increasing population, expanding economic activities, and undergoing social, economic, and physical transformations. The development of efficient and sustainable transit systems in these cities is a critical challenge that our research aims to address.
What transport and land-use policies allow emerging cities without existing mass transit to develop into transit-oriented cities supported by low-carbon modes? To address this question, research soon to be published at the World Bank uses the lenses of urban economics and Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) literature. It applies theory, derives shared learnings, and examines empirical evidence from both perspectives—ultimately bridging the gap between the two. The research develops a sandbox model to simulate the impacts of land-use regulations on transit ridership. The model shows that public transport ridership increases with increasing plot coverage ratio and Floor Area Ratio (FAR) and decreases with increasing setbacks and parking requirements. The sandbox model predicts that increasing or liberalizing the FAR has the largest benefit, followed by increasing the plot coverage ratio. Parking policy also matters because it takes scarce road and housing space. Proximity to arterial roads wide enough to allow public transport vehicles is critical, as shown by Barcelona’s example. The desired pattern resembles Barcelona’s superille plan. This pattern requires transit-friendly land use regulations throughout and not just around transit stations. This pattern will result in a Hierarchically Integrated Transit System (HITS) with several mass transit corridors –from metro to bus rapid transit to multimodal streets that privilege public transport, walking, and biking.
For presenting this topic and providing his views, we are very fortunate to have Mr. Arturo Ardila-Gomez, Lead Transport Economist at the World Bank’s Middle East and Northern Africa Region. The presentation and discussion will take place on Wednesday, June 5, 2024, at 12:00 nn, in room MC-3-850 (with a Webex connection for those who would like to connect remotely). Arturo Ardila-Gomez is the lead transport economist in the Middle East and Northern Africa Region of the World Bank. He was until recently the Global Lead for Urban Mobility at the World Bank’s Transport Global Unit, where he led the Urban Mobility Global Solutions Group at the Bank. He oversees a portfolio of transport projects, primarily in Egypt. He also provides overall technical support to projects for all regions in the Bank on issues such as financing, fare collection, the political economy of reform, and the role of disruptive technologies. He is the author of several peer-reviewed articles and two books. Examples are Sustainable Urban Transport Financing from the Sidewalk to the Subway, Decarbonizing cities by improving public transport and managing land use and traffic, Improving Public Transport: Key Elements for Reform, and Smart Cities, ITS, Mobility, and Energy Efficiency. His research focuses on land use and transport, transport decarbonization, sustainable urban transport asset management, and improving monitoring and evaluation quality, including indicators, for transport projects. He holds a doctorate in urban transportation planning and a master’s in city planning from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). He is also a civil engineer with a master’s in economics from Los Andes University in Bogota (Colombia).
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